A comparison of the ATP ratings with a smoothing method for match prediction

A simple method of rating tennis players is investigated. An exponential smoothing method based on margin of victory in terms of sets and games won is used for rating players. The method is optimised over a year's data and compared with the ATP rating for predicting the winner of each match in major tournaments. Results suggest the exponential method performs as well as the more cmplicated ATP rating method for both match prediction and tournament seeding.