Development and evaluation of models for autonomous shared mobility-on-demand systems

This paper presents a research framework for the development and evaluation of new methods to provide urban transport that offer efficient, affordable and flexible trips while reducing reliance on private vehicle use. Specifically, the paper outlines a research project which aims to demonstrate novel uses of low carbon mobility solutions driven by disruptive forces which are changing the mobility landscape and providing consumers with more choices to meet their transport needs. These forces include vehicle electrification, automated self-driving and on-demand shared mobility services. The focus of this research is on understanding the factors influencing the acceptance and demand for mobility under these emerging forces, development of models for understanding the demand for travel in the age of connected mobility, and assessing their impacts particularly under scenarios of autonomous or self-driving on-demand shared mobility. The successful completion of this research will result in the development of rigorous models that provide a better understanding of the likely reduction in carbon footprint which these trends are likely to achieve for future urban mobility. This paper also provides some initial results from a pilot study on a small road network. The results showed that autonomous mobility reduced the number of required vehicles by more than 40% while still meeting the same demand for travel on the road network, compared to a base scenario with conventional cars only. The autonomous mobility also reduced the need for car parking space (by around 58% compared to the base-case scenario). Such an impact has a clear influence on urban form in our cities and could free up a substantial amount of land and space that can be used for other purposes. However, the simulation also showed that the total vehicle-kilometres travelled by the autonomous vehicles increased because the vehicles needed to reposition. Finally, the paper describes the remaining challenges that need to be overcome in this research, and outlines the next steps to achieve the desired outcomes.