Event modelling for policymakers and valuation analysts in disruptive innovation markets: digital download strategies for Radiohead's 'In Rainbows' and Nine Inch Nails' 'The Slip'

Using a 'paired' study, this paper examines why the musicians Radiohead and Nine Inch Nails pursued digital download strategies for their albums In Rainbows (2007) and The Slip (2008). Three explanations at the time (Web 2.0, Chris Anderson's Freeconomics, Scott Anthony's Disruptive Innovation Theory) are evaluated. The paper sketches Disruptive Innovation Markets as a conceptual framework and Disruptive Information Revelation as a process of inductive logic for analysts. The 'paired' study finds other variables not discussed: career arcs, major label contracts, musician control over marketing and risk management, and digital media as a new option during negotiations for new recording deals. Significantly, the three earlier explanations overlooked the musicians' negative experiences after Terra Firma Capital Partners and Vivendi SA acquired their major labels EMI and UMG. Further research opportunities and implications for journalists, policymakers and valuation analysts are discussed.