A method suggested by Frank Duckworth and Tony Lewis to create a margin of victory in runs for the team batting second in one-day cricket matches using the par score is compared to a proposed fairer method using the projected score. The par score is shown to underestimate the margin of victory, whereas, estimates based on the projected score are essentially equivalent to those generated by the team batting first. If resources available to the team batting second are low the results show that any differences in the margins of victory using either method are marginal.
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Mathematics 2000 Festival, University of Melbourne, 10-13 January 2000