Opportunity recognition and perception of uncertainty among entrepreneurs in Christchurch: an exploratory study

The entrepreneur is required (Keh et al, 2002) to recognise and act upon an opportunity in a context of both risk (eventualities that can be predicted together with an assessment of likelihood of occurrence) and uncertainty: the unpredictable or, more precisely, those feelings which arise when we are faced with the unpredictable, whether stemming from the complex, ambiguous, rapidly changing business environment (Ansoff, 1979) or arising from within the business venture (Pearson, 1991). Though none provide empirical evidence, Timmons (1999), Snowden (2002) and Baron (2004) all describe how entrepreneurs rely on a process of pattern recognition to identify opportunities, the latter specifying patterns (plural, but no indication of number) formed by changes in the economy and a learned pattern recognition process. Whereas Kirzner (1997), also Gaglio and Katz (2001), hold that opportunities are discovered by remaining alert for economic events unnoticed by others, Drucker (1998) believes that the majority are discovered by searching systematically. There is a modest literature dealing with attitudes to uncertainty among entrepreneurs (Schere, 1981, Koh, 1996) and their behaviour faced with uncertainty (Jefferson, 1983, Wickham, 2003), mainly adopting an 'uncertainty avoidance' stance, and while Maruyama (c.1985) has recognised that individuals may perceive different amounts of uncertainty, we know of no investigation of whether, in practice, seeing (anticipating) more or less uncertainty is a characteristic of entrepreneurs. Likewise, while the existence of uncertainty is a necessary pre- requisite to the concept of opportunity, we know of no study that links opportunity recognition by entrepreneurs to their attitudes to uncertainty.