Predicting consumer innovative behaviour using alternative theories and likelihood measures: a longitudinal study

This paper reports on a longitudinal study of consumers, where two dominant theories that purport to predict innovative behavior are applied and compared directly, using a methodology suggested as ideal by past researchers. Predictions made prior to launch were then evaluated against multiple measures of purchase likelihood, and against actual adoption behavior up to 12 months after launch. The results of this study suggest that perceptions of the innovations characteristics (PIC) predicted the selfreported likelihood of adoption better than the Domain Specific Innovativeness (DSI) scale, a personality-based measure. Prediction of actual adoption was largely inaccurate and both theories massively over predicted adoption levels, however the DSI scale was slightly more accurate. The conclusions here are that no one theory could make adequate predictions of behavior, that purchase likelihood measures are a poor substitute for measuring actual behavior but that purchase probability scales should be used more often in adoption research.