The probability of self-employment exit: an event history analysis

This paper examines demographic and career related determinants of the probability of selfemployment survival and exit, separately for prior unemployed and prior employed individuals. Using data from a longitudinal panel of Belgian men and women for the period 1998 Q2 – 2007 Q4, we estimate discrete single and competing risks models. Our results indicate that 48% of the prior unemployed exit self-employment before the end of data collection, compared to 36% of the prior employed. Furthermore, we find that depending on the interest group different variables are strong predictors of self-employment tenure. Additionally, evidence is provided on the conditional probability of leaving self-employment for employment, unemployment and partial self-employment.