Using the Juster scale to predict adoption of an innovative product

The Juster scale - a simple, self-Research reported measure of purchase probability, has been shown to be effective in predicting consumers' future purchasing behaviours. Purchase probability scales have often been shown to be better predictors of future behaviour than purchase intentions measures, the more widely used method. The vast majority of studies though have used the scale to predict the purchase of products or services the consumer is already familiar with. This research looks at how accurately the Juster scale can predict early adoption of an innovative new product prior to its' launch. In a longitudinal study of market behaviour, these predictions are compared to actual adoption rates. The results show that there is only a moderate level of correlation between purchase probability scores and actual adoption behaviour, in both the short and long term, but they are better than intention measures. The main difficulty in predicting adoption behaviour seems to stem from consumers inability to foresee intervening situational factors, rather than inaccuracies in the probability scale itself.