An integral approach to scenarios

We would not find disagreement with much of what Graham Molitor says about scenarios as a 'rational discussion targeting specific oncoming change(s)' (p.1). He says that he remains unconvinced that 'scenarios make any contribution or breakthrough' (p.1), and that 'most scenarios merely reinforce and regird what participants already basically knew' (p.1). Apart from acting to 'jog thinking' in his opinion scenarios do 'not add much value'. While we would agree with much that Molitor says about scenarios as 'rational' approaches to breakthroughs in thought that has not stopped us seeking ways to best employ this method. We do this because in our opinion scenarios remain a widely accessible way to bring foresight into organisations. Poor outcomes from prior scenario processes notwithstanding many decision-makers and people with power and influence seem to regard scenarios as an approach that could produce 'valid' insights and breakthroughs in thinking. While those expectations could be deluded or naïve, we still find that clients continue to ask for scenarios in our organisational engagements. The challenge, that we have accepted, is to find ways to run scenario processes that do contribute to 'breakthroughs'. [Introduction]