Constrained optimization of average arrival time via a probabilistic approach to transport reliability

To achieve greater transit-time reduction and improvement in reliability of transport services, there is an increasing need to assist transport planners in understanding the value of punctuality; i.e. the potential improvements, not only to service quality and the consumer but also to the actual profitability of the service. In order for this to be achieved, it is important to understand the network-specific aspects that affect both the ability to decrease transit-time, and the associated cost-benefit of doing so. In this paper, we outline a framework for evaluating the effectiveness of proposed changes to average transit-time, so as to determine the optimal choice of average arrival time subject to desired punctuality levels whilst simultaneously minimizing operational costs. We model the service transit-time variability using a truncated probability density function, and simultaneously compare the trade-off between potential gains and increased service costs, for several commonly employed cost-benefit functions of general form. We formulate this problem as a constrained optimization problem to determine the optimal choice of average transit time, so as to increase the level of service punctuality, whilst simultaneously ensuring a minimum level of cost-benefit to the service operator.