Evaluating the fairness and efficiency of the Australian Football League home and away schedule

This paper discusses the fairness of the Australian Football League home and away schedule. The use of a linear model to estimate team ability and HA is shown. The degree of difficulty inherent in the schedule is estimated by calculating the average standard of the opposition. However an extra term is necessary to allow for better teams playing weaker than average opponents. The technique is demonstrated using final ladder position as a measure of team ability. The schedule difficulty is shown to be different for different teams, and the bias does not even out over the years. Another method takes venue into account and compares the expected final ladder position under the actual schedule with the fair position. The efficiency of the schedule to reward better teams with higher final ladder position is estimated via a simulation. This shows the huge amount of variability due to randomness inherent in the League schedule.