Not quite as expected: Victorian Labor and the Legislative Council 2010

On 27 November 2010, the Victorian Labor government led by John Brumby was defeated by the Liberal/National coalition, a result which, while not a total surprise, was neither predicted nor anticipated for much of the preceding four- year (fixed) term. What was more surprising was the achievement of the coalition in securing a majority in the Legislative Council, a chamber whose 2003 reforms had, implicitly at least, been designed to all but ensure that securing a majority of seats would require a majority of the vote, a circumstance which did not apply in 2010. In the election aftermath, Labor was understandably focussed on the loss of government (by one seat) with minimal attention to the upper house result. However, that result was significant, suggesting that the Labor government’s 2003 electoral model may not have served its intentions as effectively as initially thought. [Introduction]