Population ageing in Australia: policy implications of recent projections

Recent projections published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics set out a range of possible demographic futures for Australia. This article examines 12 of these which all share the same life expectancy assumptions, but which differ in their assumptions for fertility and net overseas migration. It shows that all of the projection series that include net migration entail considerable population growth, but have a minimal effect on the age structure. In contrast the projection series that assumes near replacement fertility (a total fertility rate of 2.0) and nil net migration leads to modest growth. It also leads to a younger age structure than series which combine immigration with a lower fertility rate of 1.6.