We demonstrate a complete, probabilistic quantum dynamical simulation of the standard nonlinear Hamiltonian of optomechanics, including decoherence at finite temperatures. Robust entanglement of a photonic pulse with a mechanical oscillator is predicted. Our exact quantum simulations use the positive-P technique, are scalable to large Hilbert spaces, and give excellent agreement with recent experiments. We predict the required conditions for the next stage in this research. Strong quantum steering between the photonic and mechanical systems is possible, depending on thermal occupation. This is more viable in optical than in electromechanical experiments.