Caught between the base and electoral reality

Malcolm Turnbull's position is terminal. He won't be prime minister by the next election. Last fortnight's much-reviewed excoriation of opposition leader Bill Shorten during question time all but sealed his demise. It wasn’t the content of that tirade that did it, rather the fact that he felt the need to put on such a show. That explosion was first and foremost a symptom of the prime minister's insecure standing among Liberal MPs. In the short term, it was a reaction to a Newspoll showing the government trailing Labor by eight points in voting intentions, the latest in a long line of bad polls. Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard illustrated how a weak grip on the leadership can drive increasingly desperate behaviour designed to appeal to that tiny portion of Australians known as the party base. All it really does is further repel the bulk of voters and hasten the leader's demise.