Newspoll and the new reality of post-election polling

After the 2010 election, with its drawn-out count and those interminable crossbench negotiations, opposition leader Tony Abbott pointed out that for the first time in living memory the victor, Labor, hadn't enjoyed an immediate opinion poll boost. But then came 7 September 2013, the contest that elevated him to prime minister, and for a second time there was no bounce. The earliest post-election polls, from Essential and Morgan, put the Abbott government's support at the same or a slightly lower level than at the ballot box (although the first post-election Newspoll, seven weeks after the vote, did register a temporary jump in Coalition support). And now 2016 has made it three out of three, with today's Newspoll registering 50-50 two-party-preferred support, compared to 50.4-49.6 in the government's favour at the 2 July election. Federal election results in this country usually follow a certain pattern (or at least they did before the global financial crisis ushered in a stubbornly sluggish economic environment). Not only was the victor's campaign pronounced superior, but the outcome itself was judged the 'correct' one by a greater proportion of voters than had actually given it their support on the day. Polls showed increased support for the government - and, indeed, when asked which party they had voted for, more would claim to have chosen the victor than actually had. But not these last three elections.