Sweating on preferences

Western Australia goes to the polls in a little over two months, and public opinion polls indicate that a big swing to the opposition Labor Party is on the way. It may, or may not, be big enough to install leader Mark McGowan as premier. The last election, way back in March 2013, saw Labor’s worst result in decades. From that statewide two-party-preferred vote of just 42.7 per cent, the only way is up. Surveys consistently have Labor ahead, most recently on around 52 to the government’s 48. Plotting that swing on the electoral pendulum (assuming it’s a uniform swing, or more precisely a net uniform swing) produces a touch-and-go result.