The Coalition's deck-chair question

It's difficult to imagine anything other than a comfortable change of government at the next federal election. This judgement is not greatly influenced by the recent result in Western Australia, where a huge two-party-preferred swing to Labor delivered it almost 70 per cent of Legislative Assembly seats. Despite the inevitable scramble to draw federal meaning from state outcomes, and the routine overlaying of state results onto federal boundaries, the record shows that one does not portend the other, except on random occasions. The reason we should expect Labor to win the next election – gather around everyone, take notes – is the opinion poll figures. Stretching back almost to the last election, they have had the opposition consistently and comfortably ahead, recently by large amounts, and most often these days by about 6 per cent.