The arithmetic of independence

Midway through the third week of the election campaign the main street of Orange, in mid-western New South Wales, is quiet, untouched by any sign of election fever. Peter Andren, the federal member for Calare, is walking along Summer Street, the main shopping strip, and there’s not much in his demeanour to suggest that he has much to worry about on 9 October. People nod as he walks past, some of them approaching him for a short, friendly chat.