Victoria: the natural single-term state?

Victoria could experience two shortlived governments in a row unless Labor can lift its performance in key areas. With an election due in November 2018, the recent downturn in the opinion poll performance of Daniel Andrews’s Labor government might seem like just a blip on Victoria's electoral radar. But if a downward trend were to set in, it wouldn’t be altogether surprising. While Victoria has been a "natural" Labor state for several decades - as reflected in state and national elections – Daniel Andrews’s government has struggled on a number of fronts. It no doubt expects credit for its high-profile investment in infrastructure, but even here the nitty-gritty of choosing and implementing projects invariably produces winners and losers, with the media providing the latter with an abundance of venting opportunities. In the case of one of the biggest-ticket items - the removal of a number of congested road–rail level crossings, with initial focus on the electorally sensitive Frankston corridor - the government will be hoping that memories of temporary inconvenience will have faded by election day, and be replaced by gratitude for a smoother journey. Small businesses devastated by loss of easy customer access to their premises, however temporary, may be less grateful, although Labor cynics might observe that annoyance among this core conservative constituency is unlikely to upset previous voting patterns.